The result of Vietnam’s spectacular fight against the Covid-19 is constantly worldwide praised, but may not explain yet in essence how Vietnam wins? Here I would like to analyze scientifically by the information through the mass-media to help you understand more how Vietnam has mastered the situation.
The principle of the virus spread is 1 to many (the average worldwide is now 1 to 3-6 people). Infection from F0 to F1-F3 is “spread” onwards that F after is greater than the previous F is “outbreak”. The exponential usually starts to flare the strongest at F4, F5 onwards.
Vietnam is one of the highest risk countries of Covid-19 or any other epidemic, as following:
- Neighbor with China with 1.281 km border and 3.260 km shore with hundreds thousand fishing boats;
- 97 million population at high density and extremely high density in the cities;
- Touristic country: with 18 million foreign tourists and 88 million internal tourists yearly;
- High rate ground and air circulation with 55 million air passengers yearly.
Siege & isolation
The quarantine policy of the Ministry of Health is that whenever a case is detected, it will immediately blockade all the F1 to F2 (possibly up to F3, F4), so if 1 person is infected, a series of people Around or related will be focused to be isolated immediately.
Tracking to the origin
When any positive case appears, it must be traced to the sign the source of infection (F0 of that person). Vietnam works seriously in tracing policy to effectively carry out the quarantine.
Isolating people on entry
On March 20, all entry people must be concentrated isolated when there are 85 cases in the country. The number rising up to 65,000 Vietnamese and foreigners and all the expenses was supported by State. One Korean tourist group was sent back home when refused the quarantine.
Track all the relevance of these patients to determine interrelated persons F1 to F3 of all patients to be suspected zoning for isolation.
With the outbreak scheme people can find ways to avoid and the authority can immediately roadblocks all those related to the isolation of focus. Therefore, the outbreak was extinguished very quickly.
The diagram of the outbreak can show the patients detected are those that have been already in concentrated isolation. If there is no scientific method using, such that omitting only some cases surely the explosion could be quickly then.
Scenario when lost track F0
Until April 2, Vietnam lost F0 and from then on, it could begin to a “blind groping” stage, immediately the authority turns to handle a new scenario. For example, at the outbreak of Bach Mai Hospital (Biggest hospital).
Authorities had to take very strong measures, including the blockade of the hospital and testing more than 42,000 people who have ever been to medical treatment or care for relatives, visits to relatives and all the medical staff present at the hospital since March 12th.
The outbreak of Bach Mai has proven that traceability is the most important way, because only when the F0 trail is lost, the spread is much greater. So far, the losing F0 cases have been isolated and the outbreaks was finally extinguished.
According to the Ministry of Health, the test method suitable for the prevention of disease in Vietnam is using RT-PCR test with test kit manufactured by Military Medical Academy (quick test is for reference only and not be counted).
Vietnam is the leading country with the number of people tested per positive case. Testing capacity reaches 27,000 samples/day. Up to now, there have been 206,253 of 268 cases, making 770 tests/positive cases, while in the US 5, the UK is 4, France is 3, Germany is nearly 12, Japan is 10 and South Korea (highest) 53. And China is not published so completely obscure.
The detection and monitoring of all symptoms, including the majority without symptoms (many people may suspect that Vietnam missed these cases) is a demonstration to the success of the Vietnamese epidemic prevention. Including cases in faraway border areas like patient#268.
Prevent accidental spread
Wearing a mask is mandatory and Vietnamese people adhere to wearing accordingly so infected people rarely transmit it to others. Therefore, it prevented the wave from F1 to F2. It can be said that the masks effectively prevent random dispersion, especially before the isolation.
For example, the British pilots patient#91, not knowing infected so he still went to work, but he was not contagious because he always wears a mask, except when going Buddha Bar where he got the disease.
Gradual brake to stop
Looking at the above circle, the most in Vietnam is in F1 circle and only 3 cases of F1 spreading to more F2, then each F2 infecting only one F3 until being blocked. F1> F2 and F2> F3 then F3 is completely stopped. That is the scientific basis for Vietnam to control the epidemic.
The above information proves that the method of “blockade of isolation” being applied at the beginning is extremely scientific and correct, which has helped Vietnam “intercept each bullet” to “buy time” in order to win the epidemic without any lockdown. While is too late and impossible to apply in Europe or US now, when already in mass outbreak, even the lockdown could not stop the rapid spread.
Most of mass-media involved to inform the population to be careful, how to prevent the possible epidemic immediately when the first death case in Wuhan in January. Very many forms of information were included.
On the official websites https://ncov.moh.gov.vn/ and https://ncov.vncdc.gov.vn/ always update the details and dashboard of all relevant topics for public monitoring and for official anti-epidemic organizations.
Is credible information? Here are the reasons to prove that the information is transparent and can not be concealed or falsified:
- Blockade of isolation: with this policy, any place where only one is infected not only the whole village but the whole country knows. If there is any point that is escaped from isolation, the outbreak is very large as in other countries already.
- Psychological FEAR: Vietnamese people are afraid of epidemics, they should actively wear masks and always scrutinize whether anyone shows signs of illness, or if someone escapes from isolation, they will immediately notify the authorities. Therefore, an infected one cannot be in the community.
- Social networking: There is no information can be escaped from the 60 million Facebook users in Vietnam who always ready to launch breaking news. If only one concealment is enough for the social network to spread much faster than any virus.
- Overseas surveillance: US CDC, CIA, WHO … there is no shortage of agents in Vietnam to find what is not reliable that they have assessed as not finding it. They have also confirmed the correct information.
Complete information together with data collection and data processing and analysis methods have helped Vietnam to be transparent and can quickly respond correctly. That is the basis for Vietnam to overcome major pandemic like Covid-19, after Vietnam was also the first country in the world to eliminate SARS in 2003.
Although the battle is not yet ended, but we can say that Vietnam has been winning the Covid-19 pandemic entirely by knowledge, science and discipline thanks to the belief in the State leadership. The management solutions from the beginning of the epidemic until now are completely consistent even there are many adaptations due to the change of each stage.
Vietnam handled calmly and winning with the lowest cost, which can demonstrate the intelligence and high adaptive capacity. We can firmly believe that Vietnam will gaining this momentum to a great economic victory post-pandemic.
Lê Ngọc Quang